Hong Kong file photo

Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain growth in the third quarter, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said in an interview on Sunday. An expert noted that the city is sustaining its recovery momentum, supported by stronger exports and a steady rebound in tourism.

The city's GDP expanded 3.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, according to data from the city's Census and Statistics Department released on Thursday. The growth rate slightly exceeded the 3-percent increase recorded in the first quarter, signaling economic resilience despite global uncertainties.

According to Chan, the city's economy benefited from a strong rebound in exports during the first half of the year. He said that while growth in the third quarter may slow, expansion is expected to continue. A steady recovery in inbound tourism, a series of large-scale events, and a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September could further improve market sentiment and the broader business environment, he said, according to the Wen Wei Po.

Chan also said that the government's operating account may shift from a projected deficit to a surplus, supported by improved revenue and tighter spending. However, the overall fiscal balance is expected to remain in deficit due to lagging land sales and large-scale investment in the Northern Metropolis development. He stressed that the city's public finances remain "healthy and sound."

Foreign trade demand continued to recover in the first half of the year, driving strong economic momentum, with both local production and re-exports rising in parallel and supply chains operating smoothly, said Liang Haiming, dean of the Belt and Road Research Institute at Hainan University who closely follows the Hong Kong economy.

In the first half of 2025, the total value of Hong Kong's merchandise exports rose 12.5 percent year-on-year, while that of imports climbed 12.6 percent, according to data released by the Census and Statistics Department on July 28.
Liang said that the strong export performance not only added momentum to growth, but also reflected deepening integration among Hong Kong, the Chinese mainland, and global markets, reaffirming the city's position as a resilient international trade hub.

"Local exporters are expected to further expand into emerging markets, particularly ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, to solidify Hong Kong's role in the global trade network," the expert said.

Chan noted that the Chinese mainland is encouraging enterprises to expand globally, and Hong Kong serves as a strategic platform in these efforts. He highlighted the city's strengths in supporting companies looking to broaden their global footprint, noting that its professional services are widely recognized in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Firms can also draw from Hong Kong's deep pool of internationally experienced talent, according to the official. 

International companies, meanwhile, can use Hong Kong as a springboard to access the Greater Bay Area and the wider mainland market. Chan said that the government will continue to strengthen pillar industries to boost tax revenue, while nurturing emerging sectors and advancing talent development to enhance the city's overall competitiveness.

Hong Kong's continued economic growth is believed to be driven primarily by a rebound in private consumption, the boost from major events, a stabilizing property market, improving stock performance, and steady capital inflows, Liang said, adding that government efforts to promote high-value-added tourism have also helped lift consumer sentiment.

The city received about 24 million visitors in the first half of 2025, up 12 percent year-on-year, Chief Executive John Lee said in a Facebook post on July 26. That included 17.8 million arrivals from the Chinese mainland, up 10 percent, while non-mainland visitors jumped 17 percent to 5.84 million. Lee said that Hong Kong's "East-meets-West" appeal continues to gain global traction.